TROPICAL UPDATE
Hurricane Spaghetti Models
2013 Names /  Season Peak
Model Types Model Accuracy
Storm History Tracks How Storms Form
What are Spaghetti Models? What's El Nino?
  
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  MODEL PAGES: 
Animated Computer Model Runs:
Computer Models Page #1 
Computer Models Page #2 
Computer Models Page #3

GFS 'American' Model

ECMWF 'EURO' Model
  
  LINKS TO EURO & GFS RUNS: 
GFS 00Z Model Run (updates around midnight)
GFS 12Z Model Run (updates around noon)
Euro 00Z Model Run (updates around 3am)
Euro 12Z Model Run (updates around 3pm)

  
  WEATHER IMAGE LINKS: 
June Average Areas of Origin:

Current Upper Air Pattern:

Wind Shear Tendency Map:  definition

Jet Stream Pattern:  definition

North Atlantic Water Vapor Loop:  definition

Water Sea Surface Temperatures:  definition

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly:  definition

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential:  definition

Current MJO Forecast:  definition

Saharan Air Layer:  definition

850mb Vorticity Map:  definition

Current Lightning Strikes:
Live Real-Time Lightning Data
US Lightning Strikes
Current Graphic Showing U.S. Winds
WINDcast wind forecast:


Data Buoy Data:

Animated Surf and Wave Models
Gulf/Caribbean Wave Heights:

Atlantic Wave Heights:

U.S. Coastal Tide Charts
NOAA Marine Forecasts by Regions:


E-Mail Mike

  
 SPAGHETTI MODELS & MORE
Updated Tropical Computer Models, Links, Graphics, Maps
Download the NOAA 2013 Tropical Preparedness Guide

Map Showing Current Invests and/or Tropical Systems:

Invest 91E (in the Pacific):

Current Animated Radar:

LIVE Florida Radar   /  SE USA Radar
Animated Map Showing Precipitable Water:  definition

Huge Satellite Loop of Gulf, Caribbean & Atlantic
Visible Satellite Loop:  definition   non-flash

Water Vapor Loop:  definition   non-flash

Rainbow Color Infared Loop:  definition   non-flash

Current Surface Analysis:  definition

Surface Analysis Charts   /  7 Day Loop of Surface Analysis
  

  Information on the Tropical Cyclones: 
  Hurricane Season:      From June 1 - November 30
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone, which generally forms in the tropics and is accompanied by thunderstorms and a counterclockwise circulation of winds. Tropical cyclones are classified as follows:
  Tropical Depression: 

Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

  Tropical Storm: 

Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph.

  Hurricane: 

Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation & max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher.

  What are some Hurricane Hazards? 
  Storm Surge: 

Water that is pushed toward the shore by the force of the winds swirling around the storm. This advancing surge combines with the normal tides to create the hurricane storm tide, which can increase the mean water level 15 feet or more.

  Inland Flooding:  

In the last 30 years, inland flooding has been responsible for more than half the deaths associated with tropical cyclones in the US.

  High Winds: 

Hurricane force winds can destroy poorly constructed buildings and mobile homes. Debris such as signs, roofing material, and small items left outside become flying missiles in hurricanes.

  Tornados: 

Hurricanes can produce tornadoes that add to the storm's destructive power. Tornados are most likely to occur in the right-front quadrant of the hurricane.


  What should I do with a Watch or Warning? 
When a Hurricane Watch is issued for your part of the coast this indicates the possibility that you could experience hurricane conditions within 36 hours. This watch should trigger your family's disaster plan, and proactive measures should be initiated especially those actions that require extra time such as securing a boat, leaving a barrier island, etc.
When a Hurricane Warning is issued for your part of the coast this indicates that sustained winds of at least 74 mph are expected within 24 hours. Once this warning has been issued, your family should be in the process of completing proactive actions and deciding the safest location to be during the storm.

  Thanks to these sites for some of their content: 
www.wunderground.com
www.derecho.math.uwm.edu
www.sfwmd.gov
www.noaa.gov
www.accuweather.com

www.intellicast.com
www.weatherchannel.com

  Link Exchange with Spaghetti Models: 
www.forecastingmethods.net
www.weathershack.com
www.panhandlepierfishing.com
www.gulfster.com
www.suburbantaxiofpinellas.com
www.partystations.webs.com
www.stormseye.webs.com


  Hardcore Weather with Pics/Videos/Stories: 
www.wtsp.com

*This site is for general information only and not to be used for any official forecasts. Weather is a hobby of mine (I live on Florida's West Coast) and having a site for friends and family with as many useful links for hurricane tracking and information is my objective. The site costs money to host and donations help in these costs and the time involved to keep it updated. Thank you for your help making the site grow every year since 2004. All this information is found on the Internet and is not authored by Mike. Watch local and National weather reports for your final weather making decisions.




  
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  TROPICAL FORMATION PERCENTAGE: 

 
  RAIN PREDICTION MAP: 

  
  CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: 


  FUTURE WEATHER FORECAST MAPS: 

12 Hour Forecast:                       Tomorrow Forecast:
12 hour weather forecast
24 hour weather forecast
2 Day Forecast:                            3 Day Forecast:
48 hour weather forecast 72 hour weather forecast
 

  STORM PREDICTION MAPS: 
Potential Energy Map:                Thunderstorm Outlook:

Day 1 Storm Outlook:                   Day 3 Storm Outlook:

  
  SOME GREAT WEATHER LINKS: 






  
  UPDATED BLOG ON THE TROPICS: 

   
  STORM SURGE MAP: 
Surge Exceedance  /  Surge Probabilities  /  Storm Surge?


 Essentials for your Hurricane Kit:
What to keep in stock in case of a storm
Hurricane Disaster Eating Guide
  
 Hurricane Preparedness:

A great site with tons of information
All about Window Shutters
  
 High Wind Risk Areas:
An Interactive Map/Chart
  
 Hurricane Season - Family Preparedness:
Hurricanes - Evacuate or Stay?
Family  & Individual Disaster Preparedness
What to do when a Hurricane Watch is Issued
Against the Wind - Protecting Your Home
Avoiding Storm Damage - Homeowners Checklist
Hurricane Fact Sheet from FEMA


 What Actions Should You Take To Be Prepared:
Have a family disaster plan and disaster supply kit.
Build or identify a Safe-Room in your Home.
Purchase a
NOAA Weather Radio with a tone alert feature, which allows you to receive warnings by your local NWS office.
Inquire if your Community is
StormReady.

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  Average Tropical Formations: 

June:
                                                July:
  
August:
                                         September:
 
October:
                                        November: